How can AAPL defy analyst expectations in this economy?

The effects of the current crisis can be felt in every sector - no scrip has been spared, everyone's portfolio has suffered. In the technology sector, AAPL's stock nose-dive has been talked about as much as the stock's dramatic ascent over the last year. Analyst are in agreement that AAPL can't meet market expectations because its products are for the discretionary customer that is in the market for luxury items. The abysmal state of finances has translated into a huge shift in consumer spending patterns - luxury goods retailers are reporting historically low sales figures whereas the wholesale chains' profits are soaring (Costco today reported increased sales and profits). Is there a way for AAPL to defy the analysts' predictions?

In recent months, Apple's reputation has taken a hit too. It's "I'm a Mac" campaign has begun to grate on people's nerves because of the elitist nature of the commercials. Contrary to what anyone would have conceived, the PC guy in the commercials has emerged as the underdog, thereby winning the hearts of consumers and critics alike. Steve Jobs' health has become a major issue, and though there are more iPhone sightings today than any other phone, the iPod's popularity is now waning. Unless Apple has a new trick up its sleeve, the next year is going to be doubly difficult for the iconic company.

I don't have a product concept that Apple should bring to market to fill the void left by the iPod. I do believe that Apple can re-establish its position as the darling of consumers and resurrect its reputation of having its ears to the ground if it does one simple thing - slash the prices of its products. And by slash them, I don't mean the sticker price. I am talking about doing something like GM's employee pricing gimmick; the difference would be Apple's spin on the plan. If Apple's marketing whiz-kids can figure out a way to project to the consumers that Apple is willing to bleed with the rest of the country, to take a financial hit so that people's basic needs for computing are served, it's money well spent (profit well unearned). Yes, the reduced earnings report has the potential to send the stock down further, but given the current market situation and analyst downgrades, who is to say that the stock will rebound? By offering the discount, Apple will have, in essence, conveyed to the consumer that it sympathizes with their financial hardship, and is willing to share the burden. Though subliminal, that's a powerful message that is sure to win the hearts of consumers everywhere. And with Christmas around the corner, a tug at the heart's strings is sure to loosen the purse's strings...

written once, never to be forgotten

:Link to Article:

to quote Seth Godin:

[remembering]

Is it worth doing?
What was my impact?
Will it matter in the long haul?
What sort of connections did I create?
Wherever you live, whatever you do, you have an obligation.

these are certainly words to live by. I can now find some order in the chaos...

Did we have the money all along?

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Senator Sanders speaks to the administration's sudden volte face on the availability of funds:

I mean, for the longest period of time, up to literally a few weeks ago, we had our friends in the Bush administration telling us that the fundamentals of the economy are strong, everything is just fine. And now they tell us we’re on the verge of a major economic meltdown. We’ve got to give Wall Street a $700 billion bailout. And, by the way, of course, it is not going to be the people who have benefited, the people at the very, very top who have benefited financially from Bush’s reckless economic policies who are going to pick up the bailout; it is going to be the middle class, which has been suffering for the last eight years.
...
For years now, they’ve told us that we can’t afford—that the government providing healthcare to all people is just unimaginable; it can’t be done. We don’t have the money to rebuild our infrastructure. We don’t have the money to wipe out poverty. We can’t do it. But all of a sudden, yeah, we do have $700 billion for a bailout of Wall Street.

Hmm, that sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach isn't a good one. I guess this is capitalism at its best - bail the rich out with the money from the not-so-rich...

Real World Browser Performance

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The last few months have witnessed the resurgence of a browser arms race - Google launched Chrome, IE 8 is now in its second Beta, Mozilla is about to release an update to Firefox, and Apple is making waves with its changes to Webkit (and Safari). With the emergence of blogs, anyone who is someone on a product's team is waxing eloquent about "a" differentiating feature they worked on. For some reason, one of the most talked about aspects of the new breed of browsers is Performance; all this time I thought the user interface is what people cared about most.

Performance is not a bad metric to talk about. This post is not decrying the performance improvements per se; it's a critique of the lack of a holistic approach to performance. The Javascript engine gets the most attention, and the geeks are going to town writing about the nifty engineering miracles they have performed by "Native Runtime Code Generation" or by "JITting Java-script" - all great intellectual stimulation but Javascript performance is just one facet of the Performance cube.

At first, I was closely following the Javascript battle, and all the marketing speak clouded my judgment. An article from an unlikely source, the IE Blog, set me straight; here is the link I am referring to: Performance Consideration in IE: To summarize the article, every browser has unique performance challenges, and the overall performance can't be improved by overcoming a subset of the challenges. For instance, if the bottleneck is the rendering engine, improving the Javascript engine's performance by 200% will not translate into a 200% performance boost for the user. In some cases, the improvement will not even percolate through to the user.

This kind of insight doesn't require you to be a rocket scientist, but the idea is so fundamental, it is often overlooked. Software today is complex with many interacting pieces; fixing one of them doesn't necessarily fix the problems of the whole - the whole is greater than the sum of its parts! Don't get me wrong - a re-ignited browser war is great for me as a web surfer/developer. The emergence of cloud computing, of online productivity applications, of web mail, of facebook and myspace, et al have translated into me spending more time in my browser than most other applications. I foresee a day when code development will also be done in a browser client; for us developers, that's the final desktop bastion.

My request to Mozilla, Microsoft, Apple and their ilk is to keep their innovation engines running. If they are to attract new users, it behooves them to provide the complete story behind their innovations instead of a one-dimensional perspective. Eventually users smarten up, and if they realize they have been lied to, the browser landscape is vast enough for them to defect to another product with impunity.

Microsoft's MixView Beats Apple's Genius

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I couldn't have said this better myself; I don't have a PC any more, but the Zune 3.0 software is so compelling, I might actually buy Fusion from VMWare.

"if Apple doesn't wake up and smell the coffee—iTunes is still basically the same concept it was back in 2001—they may find themselves as a runner-up in the software music player user interface front."

I'll let a visual speak to how compelling the new Mixview is...

Eating to stay healthy, with a twist

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The eating habits of Americans (and this Indian) are a favorite object of my analysis. Over the past few years, I have made some changes to my dietary choices, to how I shop at the grocery store, and where I dine out. This New York Times article kinda validates the changes I have made, and provides some insight from nutritionists that is worth your attention.

The first change I made was to stop obsessing about the fat and calorific content of food. Since I had already figured out the most "harmful" foods, I caved in to my cravings for them every now and again. The key was to watch the portions I consumed of these foods.

"AFTER decades of obsessing about fat, calories and carbs, many dieters have made the unorthodox decision to simply enjoy food again.

That doesn’t mean they’re giving up on health or even weight loss. Instead, consumers and nutritionists say they are seeing a shift toward “positive eating” — shunning deprivation diets and instead focusing on adding seasonal vegetables, nuts, berries and other healthful foods to their plates.

...

Even the Calorie Control Council, which represents makers of commercial diet foods, notes the percentage of people who are dieting has declined — to 29 percent in 2007 from 33 percent in 2004.

And there are other indicators of a shift in eating habits. In May, the market research firm Information Resources reported that 53 percent of consumers say they are cooking from scratch more than they did just six months ago, in part, no doubt, because of the rising cost of prepared foods.

I had heard of the "Slow Movement", but this is the first time that I actually paid attention.

"Some former dieters say they’ve been influenced by the international Slow Food movement, a 10-year-old group that encourages locally grown, unprocessed food. Over the Labor Day weekend an estimated 60,000 people attended the Slow Food Nation festival in San Francisco.

Alice Waters, of the restaurant Chez Panisse in Berkeley, Calif., and a prominent supporter of the Slow Food movement, said food habits change when a person begins to cook at home more. Her efforts to encourage home cooking include a new campaign of Internet cooking videos from the Slow Food Nation event, such as one from the chef Bryant Terry, who showed how to strip corn from the cob and saute it with chili."

My new approach towards food required a change to my life-style - I substituted the take-out meal with a home cooked one, and did my best to avoid late night binges. Even though my grocery bills are higher than they used to be, I know that the raw ingredients I use meet a high quality bar, something that I can't be assured of in a restaurant meal. Buying more fruit, eating peanuts or almonds instead of chips, using reduced fat butter - those changes were easier to make.

Even after making these adjustments, it's easy to let yourself go and become over-weight; when you have to cook the huge meals yourself (and clean the dishes after), the process becomes just a little more tedious. Or, you just give up, reach for the phone and dial Pizza Hut :)

To See the Sun Rising

I saw the sun rising from my bedroom window this morning, and it was a sight to behold. No alarms, no prodding required; I woke up all by myself, which is no small achievement :) I always wondered what people that woke up so early in the morning (7am is early for a night owl like me) did. Since you're here, it's obvious you want to know what I did; here's the list:

checked email.
downward facing dog - check.
upward facing dog - what?
scanned the news - nothing's really going on.
snapped my fingers, did my step, and I did it all by myself (??).

The alarm on my phone is going bonkers, so I better go heed to it. It's going to be a great weekend...